Washington Caucuses…different than you might think
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I went around to some of the caucuses up here in Snohomish County today. McCain is not doing well at all. It seems like they are all going for Romney, even though he’s out of the race. This is interesting because if McCain doesn’t win, it’s better for Huckabee. What if Romney’s delegates all go for Huckabee or Paul at the convention? Add up the non-McCain votes behind a single candidate like Paul or Huckabee at the Convention and it gets interesting. I don’t think the odds are high that this will happen, but stranger things have happened already in this campaign.
Huckabee wins today with a Romney win in Washington State because it keeps McCain away from that magic number to seal up the nomination. Huckabee won Kansas, and might win Louisiana today. If Romney or Huckabee or Ron Paul (this is a definite possibility given our penchant for freedom and anti-war sentiment…even in the Washington GOP) wins Washington State that would mean a total sweep against McCain. That would mean Virginia may be a problem for McCain. If that happens, it will get interesting…just like I said.
I saw McCain’s speech at CPAC and really thought he was going to start talking to his base. But at the McCain rally last night in Seattle (I was there) he didn’t keep up that refrain. It was almost like he gave one conservative speech and that was it. I’m not sure what his advisors are thinking, but the Washington GOP is much more aligned with Huckabee, Romney and Ron Paul than McCain. We are a very conservative, almost libertarian, base here in Washington State.
I’m sure the fight over the Boeing contract didn’t help McCain either.
With the Democrats battling it out for the next few months they just might snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory this year. All the momentum and engergy is with the Democrats this year, but their party faces an even bigger chance of being split and the wind taken out of their sails.
If the Democrats were willing to work together for victory this year, they would work out a deal now for a Billary/Obama ticket. But they aren’t going to do that, are they?
One other thought: with all the talk of unifying America and moving forward from the current polarization we have now, I think it’s only getting MORE polarizing. Look at how stark the differences are between the GOP and Democratic candidates this year? Major, major differences and the rhetoric will only increase. America will remain divided and polarized this year. We’re not going to be “unified” no matter what the candidates are telling us.
February 9th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
Hmmm. I’m wondering if the State Party doesn’t count the Romney votes since his campaign is suspended? There were so many Romney votes that I am shocked they aren’t showing up on the news.
It has never mattered before, but I was curious if our delegates from the caucuses are alloted purportionally. If so, then McCain and Huckabee will pretty much split the delegates.
I know the Democrat race is much more interesting, but I’m fascinated by the entire process this year. It makes you realize that the wonks that make the rules and set up the structure can have a big impact in tight situations. If you doubt this, look at the Governor’s election four years ago here in Washington, where rules and even some on-the-fly rule changes turned the entire election around.
This same thing might be possible in the Democratic primary if Obama wins more states, and more delegates but the uncommitted delegates go for Clinton. Even if the Obama campaign complains about the “party insiders picking the nominee contrary to the voters” Clinton will pull out the Florida and Michigan victories and we’ll see a monster Democrat cat-fight.
And that thought makes Republicans salivate.
February 9th, 2008 at 11:00 pm
The AP is reporting that McCain is ahead in Washington now with three-quarter of the precincts reporting. It is hard to know where the patchwork of pro- and con- McCain / Huckabee support is respectively, as some districts were still tabulating votes late tonight. But early returns don’t always mean what we think they mean.
February 10th, 2008 at 12:08 am
I think the caucus delegates are alloted proportionally, so they’ll both take a good number of delegates, and Ron Paul will take some as well.
The biggest story isn’t even how well Huckabee is doing. The biggest story is that McCain, the “presumptive nominee” is doing so very poorly. Twenty-six percent is dismal for a candidate in that position. Wow.